Despite plenty of fertile ground for candidates to exploit the issue, gun politics has been mostly an afterthought in this year’s presidential contest. In one critical congressional race, however, it could help make the difference in who controls the House after November.

Maine Congressman Jared Golden (D.) is locked in a highly competitive bid for re-election against Republican challenger and former NASCAR driver Austin Theriault in Maine’s Second Congressional District. The seat, seen by leaders of both parties as essential to their hopes of holding majority control of the chamber next year, has predictably attracted a raft of outside attention from groups looking to sway the outcome. One of the most potent and consistent lines of attack from those hoping to flip the seat: Golden’s recent shift in favor of an “assault weapon” ban.

“The Washington liberals changed Jared Golden,” an attack ad from the conservative Restoration PAC begins. “Congressman Golden now supports Biden’s radical gun control agenda. That’s why Golden is F-rated by Gun Owners of Maine. Jared Golden won’t protect our Second Amendment rights. He’s with Biden and Kamala now.”

“Jared Golden’s biggest lie? ‘I’m a straight shooter,'” another TV ad from the National Republican Congressional Committee states. “But Golden wasn’t straight with us. Golden reversed his position on gun control. Jared Golden flipped. Golden now supports a ban on the most commonly held rifle in the US. Golden’s turned into another Washington politician. Golden’s even backing the liberal’s plan for a gun registry. Jared Golden is not one of us.”

While such ads may seem like standard fare for gun-rights-supporting conservatives looking to tar a Democrat, there’s reason to think the attacks will be more potent than usual in this race.

Golden, a self-styled “Blue Dog” Democrat and former Marine, has been something of an oddity in our modern politics throughout his time in Congress. He unseated an incumbent Republican in 2018 and held it ever since despite Donald Trump beating Joe Biden by nearly eight points there in 2020.

Reflecting the district’s conservative-lean and strong gun culture, Golden often bucked his party on Second Amendment issues. Particularly from 2018 to 2022, when Democrats controlled the House, he frequently stood as one of the few or even only “No” votes on gun-control proposals, including new age restrictions, “ghost gun” bans, ammunition magazine bans, and an assault weapon ban. He even boasted a “B-rating” from the NRA, unusually high marks for the group to give a Democrat in recent years.

However, the district is also home to the town of Lewiston. Following last October’s massacre there, Golden publicly voiced support for an “assault weapon” ban for the first time in his career.

“Because of a false confidence that our community was above this and that we could be in full control, among many other misjudgments, I have opposed efforts to ban deadly weapons of war like the assault weapon used to carry out this crime,” Golden said at the time. “The time has now come for me to take responsibility for this failure, which is why I now call on the United States Congress to ban assault rifles like the one used by the sick perpetrator of this mass killing.”

Since that pivot, Golden now sports an “F-rating” from the NRA, and the group has endorsed his challenger. And now that he’s facing a difficult re-election bid, it’s clear that his change of heart has turned into a cause for concern over his standing with gun voters in Maine.

Last month, his campaign spun up a new coalition of outdoorsmen dubbed “Sportsmen for Golden” meant to emphasize his bona fides among hunters and gun owners and blunt some of the attacks he’s faced from gun-rights advocates. He also cut a campaign ad with Craig Poulin, a retired chief of the Maine State Police, playing up his commitment to gun rights and law enforcement.

“Jared is a Maine sportsman and gun owner who respects and supports the Second Amendment, and he opposes unnecessary and unhelpful gun legislation,” the retired chief says in the ad over background footage of Golden firing a bolt-action rifle.

He also continues to publicly oppose some gun-control measures, like a three-day waiting period or “expanding background checks,” according to the Portsmouth Herald.

It’s unclear yet how much damage the attack ads pointing to Golden’s assault weapon ban about-face have done or how much he’s been able to blunt those attacks with his own pro-gun messaging. Polling in the race has been sparse, but the few conducted so far have shown Golden tied with his challenger or narrowly trailing.

Golden’s campaign has thus far outraised Theriault’s, but outside groups opposing him have far outspent the incumbent. Restoration PAC, the group behind the previously mentioned ad, has been the single largest outside spender in the race thus far, shelling out more than $3.1 million to oppose Golden. The NRCC has also spent $1.9 million. Meanwhile, even in its beleaguered state, the NRA is also investing in the campaign to unseat him. The group has spent $57,019 in support of Theriault and another $50,000 opposing Golden, more than it has invested in any other House race, according to OpenSecrets.

Golden’s seat may not literally be the dividing line between Republican and Democratic control of the House. Moderate-leaning swing districts in the House tend to all break the same way based on whichever party the macro-political environment favors in a given election. But with how closely divided the House has been between the two parties in recent years, it isn’t unreasonable to think that Golden’s seat will be one of a tiny handful that ultimately decides whether the chamber remains in GOP hands. That’s particularly true given that current polling suggests that party control of the House is essentially a coin flip.

The outcome of the race in Maine’s Second Congressional District will be an interesting test case for how potent gun politics can still be in 2024 and whether gun-rights voters can still mobilize to exact an electoral toll from politicians perceived to have crossed them as they once did en masse. Whichever way the election goes, it will probably determine how each side views the political potency of gun policy.